{"id":2753,"date":"2025-04-09T18:17:12","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T16:17:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/africanova.info\/?p=2753"},"modified":"2025-04-09T18:17:15","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T16:17:15","slug":"politique-guinee-la-transition-sous-tension-entre-promesses-electorales-et-prolongement-de-la-junte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/africanova.info\/?p=2753","title":{"rendered":"Politique : Guin\u00e9e \u2013 La transition sous tension entre promesses \u00e9lectorales et prolongement de la junte"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Introduction<\/strong><br>La Guin\u00e9e, dirig\u00e9e par la junte du colonel Mamady Doumbouya depuis le coup d\u2019\u00c9tat de septembre 2021, s\u2019enfonce dans une crise de l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9. Alors que le r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum constitutionnel est fix\u00e9 au&nbsp;<strong>21 septembre 2025<\/strong>, les doutes persistent sur la tenue effective des \u00e9lections promises. Entre pression de la CEDEAO, m\u00e9fiance de l\u2019opposition et ambigu\u00eft\u00e9s sur l\u2019avenir de Doumbouya, cet article d\u00e9crypte les enjeux d\u2019une transition \u00e0 la d\u00e9rive.<\/p><p><strong>Un calendrier \u00e9lectoral flou malgr\u00e9 les annonces<\/strong><br>Le gouvernement a officiellement programm\u00e9 un r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum constitutionnel pour septembre 2025, premi\u00e8re \u00e9tape vers des \u00e9lections g\u00e9n\u00e9rales. Pourtant,\u00a0<strong>le premier ministre Amadou Oury Bah reconna\u00eet des \u00ab difficult\u00e9s majeures \u00bb<\/strong>\u00a0: absence de fichier \u00e9lectoral fiable, retard dans l\u2019adoption du code \u00e9lectoral et contraintes climatiques (saison des pluies de juillet \u00e0 septembre)<a href=\"https:\/\/lanouvelletribune.info\/2025\/02\/guinee-vers-un-prolongement-de-la-transition-politique\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">3<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/afrique\/article\/2025\/03\/06\/guinee-le-premier-ministre-promet-un-referendum-et-des-elections-presidentielle-et-legislative-en-2025_6576739_3212.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">4<\/a>.\u00a0Le porte-parole Ousmane Gaoual Diallo a m\u00eame admis que\u00a0<em>\u00ab toutes les \u00e9lections ne peuvent pas se faire en 2025 \u00bb<\/em>, laissant planer un report partiel des scrutins.<\/p><p><strong>La nouvelle Constitution : Un outil de l\u00e9gitimation ?<\/strong><br>Le projet de loi fondamentale, d\u00e9voil\u00e9 en juillet 2024, suscite des craintes :<\/p><ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Suppression de la limite des mandats pr\u00e9sidentiels<\/strong>, ouvrant la voie \u00e0 une candidature de Doumbouya<\/li>\n\n<li><strong>Renforcement des pouvoirs de l\u2019ex\u00e9cutif<\/strong>\u00a0au d\u00e9triment du l\u00e9gislatif<\/li>\n\n<li><strong>Absence de consultation inclusive<\/strong>\u00a0des partis politiques et de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 civile<\/li><\/ul><p>Des proches du colonel \u00e9voquent une possible candidature en 2025, malgr\u00e9 ses d\u00e9n\u00e9gations publiques.\u00a0<em>\u00ab Si la Constitution le permet, pourquoi pas ? \u00bb<\/em>, glisse un conseiller sous anonymat.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"416\" src=\"https:\/\/africanova.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Mamadi-Doumbouya.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2755\" srcset=\"https:\/\/africanova.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Mamadi-Doumbouya.webp 800w, https:\/\/africanova.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Mamadi-Doumbouya-300x156.webp 300w, https:\/\/africanova.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Mamadi-Doumbouya-768x399.webp 768w, https:\/\/africanova.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Mamadi-Doumbouya-585x304.webp 585w, https:\/\/africanova.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Mamadi-Doumbouya-600x312.webp 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/figure><p><strong>Pressions internationales et r\u00e9sistances locales<\/strong><br>La\u00a0<strong>CEDEAO<\/strong>, qui exigeait un retour \u00e0 l\u2019ordre constitutionnel pour fin 2024, multiplie les avertissements. En d\u00e9cembre 2024, l\u2019Union citoyenne pour l\u2019\u00e9mergence de la Guin\u00e9e r\u00e9clamait un\u00a0<em>\u00ab dialogue inclusif \u00bb<\/em>, tandis que des manifestations anti-junte se pr\u00e9paraient \u00e0 Paris<a href=\"https:\/\/information.tv5monde.com\/afrique\/guinee-vers-une-transition-bientot-hors-delai-2753046\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">7<\/a>.\u00a0L\u2019opposition, marginalis\u00e9e (UFDG plac\u00e9e sous surveillance, anciens partis dissous), d\u00e9nonce une\u00a0<em>\u00ab mascarade \u00e9lectorale \u00bb<\/em>\u00a0visant \u00e0 p\u00e9renniser le r\u00e9gime militaire.<\/p><p><strong>Sc\u00e9narios possibles pour 2025<\/strong><\/p><ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Tenue du r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum seul<\/strong>\u00a0: Report des \u00e9lections \u00e0 2026, prolongeant\u00a0<em>de facto<\/em>\u00a0la transition<\/li>\n\n<li><strong>\u00c9lections partielles<\/strong>\u00a0: L\u00e9gislatives en 2025, pr\u00e9sidentielle diff\u00e9r\u00e9e<\/li>\n\n<li><strong>Candidature surprise de Doumbouya<\/strong>\u00a0: Malgr\u00e9 ses d\u00e9mentis, hypoth\u00e8se cr\u00e9dible si la nouvelle Constitution l\u2019autorise<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/afrique\/article\/2025\/04\/02\/guinee-la-junte-annonce-la-tenue-du-referendum-sur-la-constitution-le-21-septembre-2025_6589696_3212.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">6<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/afrique\/articles\/ce8y4z8rj4no\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">8<\/a><\/li><\/ol><p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><br>La Guin\u00e9e incarne les contradictions des transitions militaires en Afrique de l\u2019Ouest. Si le r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum de septembre 2025 pourrait apaiser les partenaires internationaux, l\u2019absence de consensus politique interne et les ambigu\u00eft\u00e9s constitutionnelles risquent d\u2019en faire un outil de consolidation du pouvoir en place plut\u00f4t qu\u2019une voie vers la d\u00e9mocratie.<\/p><div class=\"gsp_post_data\" data-post_type=\"post\" data-cat=\"politique\" data-modified=\"120\" data-title=\"Politique : Guin\u00e9e \u2013 La transition sous tension entre promesses \u00e9lectorales et prolongement de la junte\" data-home=\"https:\/\/africanova.info\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IntroductionLa Guin\u00e9e, dirig\u00e9e par la junte du colonel Mamady Doumbouya depuis le coup d\u2019\u00c9tat de septembre 2021, s\u2019enfonce dans une crise de l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9. Alors que le r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum constitutionnel est fix\u00e9&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2754,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politique"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/africanova.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/guinee-mamady-doumbouya.jpeg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/africanova.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2753","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/africanova.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/africanova.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/africanova.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/africanova.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2753"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/africanova.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2753\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2756,"href":"https:\/\/africanova.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2753\/revisions\/2756"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/africanova.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2754"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/africanova.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2753"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/africanova.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2753"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/africanova.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}